Wednesday, May 18, 2011
Thursday, December 17, 2009
Please relook at the older suggestion: Usher Agro its still not performing but yes smart traders have made money because of its capped move between 36-42-45 levels. and underlying volatility of 2.8% for last three months on intra day basis. However today i am writing for stocks which can outperform just like what i wrote for Zylog Systems, Unity Infra LMW EDL Alok and Jk lakshmi and many more of them in my older posts.
If you want safer return with a view of 6-9 months. You should seriously look at Genus Power
Other stocks that I have on my radar and still see value buying includes:
Sarla Performance(526885), Usher Agro Temptation Foods( a sell as higher risk associated with it.)
Monday, August 10, 2009
a)I expect it would be around 44-45 for a long time before i takes a call on upside, on downside it wont be much from 36. P/BV post the listing would be around 1.45 times.
Valuations dont go by it Think about owning a HYdro POwer business 10000 MW by the end of 2011. It will be around 3 Rs per watt. So lot of potential at this point of time. With Maket being positive this will atleast trigger 39-42 in the first week of listing otself.
I put a subscribe on this IPO with a rating of 3. and long term rating of 4. Its fair price for issue is around 27- 33. This is because if I compare NTPC listing it gave 40% return to investors I expect the regulatory body will definitely adjsut to make sure you get 40% return on Investment on the amount allotted.
It seems the book will subscribe 5-6 times on retail front so you can get 15-16k worth of shares add the 20-25% gain. You can make appx 4500 -5000 on upper limit. The Kostak rate in different market is around 3k to 3.5k. SO i guess even punters has sensed the same.
PSU's at the time of listing has given decent returns and it will be no different to the promising star of tomorrow. D0nt go for valuation ploy lot many projects are undergoing, which has impacted Profit Loss on going basis as revenue will be streamlined in days to come
Friday, August 7, 2009
Remember Mahindra's New Kid on the block. Much beyond Valuation but truly a sentimental play. If I had to value ADANI i would suggest its underlying value at 70 its fair value at 120 its sentimental value at 145-160. Yes 160, this is what Adani Power will touch before anything wrong happens to it. I go Valuing an IPO on the basis of Value subscription its listing price as per HNI formula and QIB formula sets out between 125-130. SO within a week it will jump to that level even if market has some negative sentiments attached to it . Remeber the Group elder kid Mundra POrt a wonderful listing and a strong kid for a long time. Adani will b no different, Going forward track technicals of Mundraport and You will get a fair idea about how in the initial stage the group kid will react too. It will definitely touch 160 and after that EUPHORIA can take it to 200. But i guess I avoid EUPHORIA i would wait for it to touch 100 again.
Surely you are gettign 325+6% more atleast 340-343 shs for every 1 lac limit invested. More importantly you will make even at Rs 30. A profit of 10k. What else you can expect in 30 days. But wait patiently, QIB's have gone crazy so they will mop it up till 160.
About NHPC just invest at 36 and hold for a long time it will be a boring PSU with 60% listing gains. After that almost a year of consolidation remember NTPC, this being a unique story can even touch 65-70. But 100% in FIve years I think its better to skip the stock and buy at Bookvalue of close to 16-20 if it touches from there the stock would be a true multibagger may be traing interest could take the stock to Rs 100 also.
Tuesday, June 30, 2009
Unitech SELL AT 70:I reteriate a sell on Unitech the over stretched balance seet and earning dilution would mean clearly that the story will not be able to survive another turmoil. Post budget the correction seems inevitable in that case they will be the largest losers.
Tuesday, June 23, 2009
Whenever I study the IPO i measure it with listing gains. Here my guess is that it will show 400 and if market is in distress 180 is not away. Future Group R power name big bangs and they suck. Because atlast its the valuation that plays the spoil sport for the built in EUPHORIA. 300 crores is what they are mopping up. Think about R jhunjhunwala and FI's its a peanut for them to manipulate the small kid of the big group. You talk about the asset value business model everything apart at sensex 14 times this stock deserves a premium but how much is the big question. 9830 clients /customer base is what I see the company growing at on an avg for next 3 years, maning CAGR of 33-35%. Dont look at the past simply think my past is my girl friend and future is my wife. Friends remeber the hype over JYothi LAbs at that point of time also I had the same reason why would you invest in an IPO when better players are available with proven record. Compare a business model on similar guidelines Country Club it definitely a better bet with proven record and decent model not comparable to Mahindra's as its not in fooling business it is also available at decent valuations.
- The stock at 275 is available at 28 times forward. Going forward also at 26 times on upper band it stretches further to 32 odd times.
- The stock is a group kid of Mahindras, premium justified but not twice the real valuation
- HNI's to leverage FI's to invest heavily closed ciruclation stock can touch 350 500 look at tech mahindra 350 -1100 - further 1500 and than dead. SO dont go by valuation theory purely
- Invest with a high risk apetite though on listing risk seems negligible. The IPO cut-off will be around 290-310.
- The stock will list at a premium beacuse HNI's breakeven formula will force it to blaze. After that do i need to tell exit with a tight stop of 265.
And do not enter till the euphoria dies and the stock is available at less than 14 PE.
Talk about proxy business, Hotels, what else if they are valued at 7-10 times and that too not on NAV adjusted basis. You cannot expect a big bang from MAhindra But market players will make it and keep it expensive before they decide to exit
So given the sentiment and IPO size brand I reteriate a subscribe a buy wid a sell on IPO listing. The returns are there atleast 10-15% on listing days. Mahindra's can make it even cheerful at giving discount to holders and gettign the cut off too 275.
Fundamentally this stock i not worth keeping long term at current price. The valuation of Land Bank to expected market cap is more than DLF. COmparing the valuation of Hotel industry from PE ratio play it is more than Indian Hotels and Asian Hotels.
Wha else I need t o tell you small investors subscribe I assign a fare rating of 3.5 out of 5 which means subscribe for sell with lesser risk on listing day due to HNI breakeven formula.
Tuesday, June 9, 2009
Now lets talk about statistical corelation between HDIL and Unitech. The freee fall in Unitech is far more and high volatile underlines the stock. Remeber a fall form 72 to 29 in a day. I reteriate a sell on UNitech at 85 with tgt of 37 and a buy on HDIL on declines arnd 160 levels. The reason being the stock of HDIL as better valuation and if one goes wrong on realiy the fall in unitech would be more. Make sure the value of short = value of long and not 100 shs of unitech to matched with 10 shs of HDIL
Please note this is more on statistical arbitrage and major contribution is given by a friend of mine