Safeguard and take these weeds out of your portfolio:Sell on, Unitech,and other companies

Hi Investors,
Unitech SELL AT 70:I reteriate a sell on Unitech the over stretched balance seet and earning dilution would mean clearly that the story will not be able to survive another turmoil. Post budget the correction seems inevitable in that case they will be the largest losers.

Suzlon Sell: A classical case of wealth destrcution fv atleast 50% below the current mkt cap of 92. But i feel its a delete forever from portfolio

R Power Sell: Tgt 100 or even below. Reason is promoters invested 1800 crores and raised 10000 crores I doubt it deserves Current mkt cap of 56000 crores.

IVRCL Infra:It does not deserve more than 100 rs as a FV and thus a good exit and even a good shorting stk

Punj Lloyd: A perfect Sale and long term exit is recommended. I feel all the stocks can come and test Rs 30-40 before anything good happens to it

RMedia: A long term sell and exit stock does not deserve a investment bet

Happy investing

Mahindra Holidays IPO

Another R power haaahaa just kidding investor friends. SOme things dont come cheap and it is one of them the company has a business model which some may call fraudulent some say they dupe their clients I say its solid> Think about a stupid club you are stuck with cos you piad huge money on the enrollment after that you visit the place na. Same goes here. Think about Mahindra its TATA's in the making Satyam and now many more in the pipeline. But these are philosophical which should not be under my purview when I am talking about the IPO fundamentally.
Whenever I study the IPO i measure it with listing gains. Here my guess is that it will show 400 and if market is in distress 180 is not away. Future Group R power name big bangs and they suck. Because atlast its the valuation that plays the spoil sport for the built in EUPHORIA. 300 crores is what they are mopping up. Think about R jhunjhunwala and FI's its a peanut for them to manipulate the small kid of the big group. You talk about the asset value business model everything apart at sensex 14 times this stock deserves a premium but how much is the big question. 9830 clients /customer base is what I see the company growing at on an avg for next 3 years, maning CAGR of 33-35%. Dont look at the past simply think my past is my girl friend and future is my wife. Friends remeber the hype over JYothi LAbs at that point of time also I had the same reason why would you invest in an IPO when better players are available with proven record. Compare a business model on similar guidelines Country Club it definitely a better bet with proven record and decent model not comparable to Mahindra's as its not in fooling business it is also available at decent valuations.

• The stock at 275 is available at 28 times forward. Going forward also at 26 times on upper band it stretches further to 32 odd times.
• The stock is a group kid of Mahindras, premium justified but not twice the real valuation
• HNI's to leverage FI's to invest heavily closed ciruclation stock can touch 350 500 look at tech mahindra 350 -1100 - further 1500 and than dead. SO dont go by valuation theory purely
• Invest with a high risk apetite though on listing risk seems negligible. The IPO cut-off will be around 290-310.
• The stock will list at a premium beacuse HNI's breakeven formula will force it to blaze. After that do i need to tell exit with a tight stop of 265.

And do not enter till the euphoria dies and the stock is available at less than 14 PE.

Talk about proxy business, Hotels, what else if they are valued at 7-10 times and that too not on NAV adjusted basis. You cannot expect a big bang from MAhindra But market players will make it and keep it expensive before they decide to exit

So given the sentiment and IPO size brand I reteriate a subscribe a buy wid a sell on IPO listing. The returns are there atleast 10-15% on listing days. Mahindra's can make it even cheerful at giving discount to holders and gettign the cut off too 275.

Fundamentally this stock i not worth keeping long term at current price. The valuation of Land Bank to expected market cap is more than DLF. COmparing the valuation of Hotel industry from PE ratio play it is more than Indian Hotels and Asian Hotels.

Wha else I need t o tell you small investors subscribe I assign a fare rating of 3.5 out of 5 which means subscribe for sell with lesser risk on listing day due to HNI breakeven formula.

Happy Investing,

Aashish Tater

Sell on Unitech and Buy HDIL

A perfect hedge and return making strategy. Unitech balancesheet is over stretched as of now. Its networth is on back of large equity dilutuion on FY 11 basis the stock is stretched at 20-30 times forward on NAV adjusted basis provided if i value the real estate close to 2007 levels. Meaning in best case scnario a PE of 30 odd times on FY-11 earnings.
Now lets talk about statistical corelation between HDIL and Unitech. The freee fall in Unitech is far more and high volatile underlines the stock. Remeber a fall form 72 to 29 in a day. I reteriate a sell on UNitech at 85 with tgt of 37 and a buy on HDIL on declines arnd 160 levels. The reason being the stock of HDIL as better valuation and if one goes wrong on realiy the fall in unitech would be more. Make sure the value of short = value of long and not 100 shs of unitech to matched with 10 shs of HDIL

Please note this is more on statistical arbitrage and major contribution is given by a friend of mine

Dear Investor@ Raghavendra:

Dear Investor@ Raghavendra: Its an intersting question i would recommend you over 10 stocks in a weeks time as I have busy schedule but now I can recall only few Genus Power less than 7, Cords Cable less than 8, Diamond Cables less than 7. This are few picks and great investment positive company. Atleast they dont raise capital to invest for high div yielding. In that case you can contact me I will give you a long list and investment ideas If you want it as an investment stock all the best. I still reteriate apply with view of listing gains I do not deny that it may not touch 70 but DO remeber this is a follow on public offer and if you are an old player who can take few neat glasses of wine I think you should apply but if you are new to the business of money making stay away as this punch aapke hosh ura sakte hain.I have known so many investors who want security on downside do not mind waiting bit long and patient thats why they never invest in stocks of RNRL ISpat Nagar Fert. These are speculative stks wid high risks so I told greed apart welcome to the world of making money I cannot change my investment philosophy.I rate this IPO as 1 out of 5 from investment perspective and 3 from speculation perspective. Readers a genuine request please leave your mailing address from next time s0 that I can personally reply

Thanks,Aashish Tater

Outlook On Market

Market has been up up ad only up not surprised by the strength but it needs a bretaher else we are heading to 30% market collapse. i was deadly bullish at 8k and i am deadly bearish at current levels. The baloon before it bursts has to blow bigger and bigger. The FV of Sensex is arnd 12500-12650. From here on with the strength I guess if my techs is correct it might touch 15500 or max 15800. Because of liquidity chsing our markets have become overvalued from undervalued. Still bullish on my pics Alok,Zylog, J K Lakshmi, Unity Electrotherm Usher Agro
Right now One more busineess that is attracting me is Food. thats why I picked the best of the lot Usher Agro. This stock has to create wealth with FII's and large players doing block deals on the small company its a company of tomorrow undoubtedly. The other stock I like from here on is my favorite Grand Hyatt i mean Asian Hotels 500023.
This company was in limelight last year when ashish chugh recommended it at 680 odd levels. Todays it 285. Looking at the properties and EPS of 30+ last yr expected EPS of 40+ for this fiscal I guess this can trade at 14 PE . Meaning close to 560 a doubler from here on . Volumes are blazing someone is definitely accumualting the stock.
Rest on you investors I envisage my conviction with a view of owning the business group of Asian Hotels would be a dream come true wid positio in Asian Hotels. One more stock being BindalAgro better known as Oswal Chemical and Fertilizer. The stock is having a cash per share fo cloe to Rs 38. The stock can double form current level of 19.