Sell on Unitech and Buy HDIL

A perfect hedge and return making strategy. Unitech balancesheet is over stretched as of now. Its networth is on back of large equity dilutuion on FY 11 basis the stock is stretched at 20-30 times forward on NAV adjusted basis provided if i value the real estate close to 2007 levels. Meaning in best case scnario a PE of 30 odd times on FY-11 earnings.
Now lets talk about statistical corelation between HDIL and Unitech. The freee fall in Unitech is far more and high volatile underlines the stock. Remeber a fall form 72 to 29 in a day. I reteriate a sell on UNitech at 85 with tgt of 37 and a buy on HDIL on declines arnd 160 levels. The reason being the stock of HDIL as better valuation and if one goes wrong on realiy the fall in unitech would be more. Make sure the value of short = value of long and not 100 shs of unitech to matched with 10 shs of HDIL

Please note this is more on statistical arbitrage and major contribution is given by a friend of mine

Dear Investor@ Raghavendra:

Dear Investor@ Raghavendra: Its an intersting question i would recommend you over 10 stocks in a weeks time as I have busy schedule but now I can recall only few Genus Power less than 7, Cords Cable less than 8, Diamond Cables less than 7. This are few picks and great investment positive company. Atleast they dont raise capital to invest for high div yielding. In that case you can contact me I will give you a long list and investment ideas If you want it as an investment stock all the best. I still reteriate apply with view of listing gains I do not deny that it may not touch 70 but DO remeber this is a follow on public offer and if you are an old player who can take few neat glasses of wine I think you should apply but if you are new to the business of money making stay away as this punch aapke hosh ura sakte hain.I have known so many investors who want security on downside do not mind waiting bit long and patient thats why they never invest in stocks of RNRL ISpat Nagar Fert. These are speculative stks wid high risks so I told greed apart welcome to the world of making money I cannot change my investment philosophy.I rate this IPO as 1 out of 5 from investment perspective and 3 from speculation perspective. Readers a genuine request please leave your mailing address from next time s0 that I can personally reply

Thanks,Aashish Tater

Outlook On Market

Market has been up up ad only up not surprised by the strength but it needs a bretaher else we are heading to 30% market collapse. i was deadly bullish at 8k and i am deadly bearish at current levels. The baloon before it bursts has to blow bigger and bigger. The FV of Sensex is arnd 12500-12650. From here on with the strength I guess if my techs is correct it might touch 15500 or max 15800. Because of liquidity chsing our markets have become overvalued from undervalued. Still bullish on my pics Alok,Zylog, J K Lakshmi, Unity Electrotherm Usher Agro
Right now One more busineess that is attracting me is Food. thats why I picked the best of the lot Usher Agro. This stock has to create wealth with FII's and large players doing block deals on the small company its a company of tomorrow undoubtedly. The other stock I like from here on is my favorite Grand Hyatt i mean Asian Hotels 500023.
This company was in limelight last year when ashish chugh recommended it at 680 odd levels. Todays it 285. Looking at the properties and EPS of 30+ last yr expected EPS of 40+ for this fiscal I guess this can trade at 14 PE . Meaning close to 560 a doubler from here on . Volumes are blazing someone is definitely accumualting the stock.
Rest on you investors I envisage my conviction with a view of owning the business group of Asian Hotels would be a dream come true wid positio in Asian Hotels. One more stock being BindalAgro better known as Oswal Chemical and Fertilizer. The stock is having a cash per share fo cloe to Rs 38. The stock can double form current level of 19.

Market Outlook

Dont get overwhelmed by short term portfolio growth. I still dont buy stories that have given pain in the past. Market is poised for fall or atleast showing some chance of fatigueness. Not a single sock tested there support levels as if external pressure (liquidity ) creating an upper thrust. technically its not possible. The best way to play this market is through puts market for next 12-15 days will be +-5% nd wih charts showing no strength one can short index on rise specially three stocks Bhel, it seems fundamentally the prices are factored in. Reliance around 2230-2285 range wid an immediate tgt of 2015.
The biggest challenge for India going ahead is whether they will be able to sustain the euphoric expectations, which according to me is not possible. In 1930 such developments happened in few of the developed markets of now, they were developing markets than. Where there was a growth of 67% -75% index retrun and than market took a slide of over 50%. I do not argue about the levels right now but if index has to test 12600 before it goes up it would be good for markets and market players.
Tracking history once UPA got stabilized market touched 14800 and i guess it cannot go beyond that even this time. So market slided and tested 12700 aand thats what i am eyeing at.

Mid Cap Gems

Buy on Zylog Systems wid a tgt of 255 cmp 158 sl @ 144, Buy Usher agro stock has seen good accumulation patter stk has tgt of 52 intermediate sl at 38. Also buy Rajvir Inds the stock has managed to close above its monthly high now has potential to give 33%
from here wid sl of 41.5 cmp 47.50 tgt 68 to 73.

USHER AGRO

buy Usher agro wid a tgt of 44 52 and 60 in days to come because it peershave taken a run and that why its available at decent vlauations.
make sure you exit the stk wid tight sl of 38

US Fed themselves does not know about US

Blame it on large institutions investors and US politics. It seems these large players have accumulated enough stocks and profits in recent run. And that is why US Fed has again changed its statment i.e. US Fed predicts deeper recession. GDP is not a function of what Fed tells daily. The problem was still there. I guess Fed isa puppet of large players and does not have its own estimate. How can you tell the lady that she cannot concieve last week and this week she gives birth to a baby. It does not take even 2 week to change FEd view. And the global players follow Fed directions as bible. US is still a troubled economy and it continues to be. Nothing changed case schiller index does not predict any near term recovery. GM bankruptcy ruins the economy further.