Dont get overwhelmed by short term portfolio growth. I still dont buy stories that have given pain in the past. Market is poised for fall or atleast showing some chance of fatigueness. Not a single sock tested there support levels as if external pressure (liquidity ) creating an upper thrust. technically its not possible. The best way to play this market is through puts market for next 12-15 days will be +-5% nd wih charts showing no strength one can short index on rise specially three stocks Bhel, it seems fundamentally the prices are factored in. Reliance around 2230-2285 range wid an immediate tgt of 2015.
The biggest challenge for India going ahead is whether they will be able to sustain the euphoric expectations, which according to me is not possible. In 1930 such developments happened in few of the developed markets of now, they were developing markets than. Where there was a growth of 67% -75% index retrun and than market took a slide of over 50%. I do not argue about the levels right now but if index has to test 12600 before it goes up it would be good for markets and market players.
Tracking history once UPA got stabilized market touched 14800 and i guess it cannot go beyond that even this time. So market slided and tested 12700 aand thats what i am eyeing at.
Monday, May 25, 2009
Sunday, May 24, 2009
Mid Cap Gems
Buy on Zylog Systems wid a tgt of 255 cmp 158 sl @ 144, Buy Usher agro stock has seen good accumulation patter stk has tgt of 52 intermediate sl at 38. Also buy Rajvir Inds the stock has managed to close above its monthly high now has potential to give 33%
from here wid sl of 41.5 cmp 47.50 tgt 68 to 73.
from here wid sl of 41.5 cmp 47.50 tgt 68 to 73.
Thursday, May 21, 2009
USHER AGRO
buy Usher agro wid a tgt of 44 52 and 60 in days to come because it peershave taken a run and that why its available at decent vlauations.
make sure you exit the stk wid tight sl of 38
make sure you exit the stk wid tight sl of 38
US Fed themselves does not know about US
Blame it on large institutions investors and US politics. It seems these large players have accumulated enough stocks and profits in recent run. And that is why US Fed has again changed its statment i.e. US Fed predicts deeper recession. GDP is not a function of what Fed tells daily. The problem was still there. I guess Fed isa puppet of large players and does not have its own estimate. How can you tell the lady that she cannot concieve last week and this week she gives birth to a baby. It does not take even 2 week to change FEd view. And the global players follow Fed directions as bible. US is still a troubled economy and it continues to be. Nothing changed case schiller index does not predict any near term recovery. GM bankruptcy ruins the economy further.
Wednesday, May 20, 2009
Over DOne in short term
Hi all,
Market need to take a good pause before it starts all over again. Heavy weights are taking run up as if fundamentals have changed their way. Structural growth takes time and its not an easy task to improve economic conditions when we are laggards. The time has come when selective midcaps will run and selected large caps will try and make a higher bottom. But Index technically can test 12600 in no time. Japan has shrank. If you see Dow Jones technical pattern it was all over. Bulls and bears are having tussle but is it bulls who will have last laugh definitely not. Indian market seems to be over bought beacuse of lot of cash waiting on sidelines. Thus on every fall we are protected but it would be difficult for markets to identify new leads. Looking at charts I see 7 stocks to test lower level support soon. Reliance @2015, LT 1144, SBI 1470, Bharti 766, DLF can test 255, Bhel to test 1700 thus if these market movers are at resistance levels I doubt whether market can sustain its upswing.
Take fundamental we are ahead of China and other Bric nations in terms of valuations. On upside people dont find valuation of 20 to be expensive and on downside even 10 is expensive if this is not what irrationality is than define irrationality for me. Nifty will test 3830 sooner than later. Bullish on edl, everonn alok text and mid cap reality and vijayabank
Market need to take a good pause before it starts all over again. Heavy weights are taking run up as if fundamentals have changed their way. Structural growth takes time and its not an easy task to improve economic conditions when we are laggards. The time has come when selective midcaps will run and selected large caps will try and make a higher bottom. But Index technically can test 12600 in no time. Japan has shrank. If you see Dow Jones technical pattern it was all over. Bulls and bears are having tussle but is it bulls who will have last laugh definitely not. Indian market seems to be over bought beacuse of lot of cash waiting on sidelines. Thus on every fall we are protected but it would be difficult for markets to identify new leads. Looking at charts I see 7 stocks to test lower level support soon. Reliance @2015, LT 1144, SBI 1470, Bharti 766, DLF can test 255, Bhel to test 1700 thus if these market movers are at resistance levels I doubt whether market can sustain its upswing.
Take fundamental we are ahead of China and other Bric nations in terms of valuations. On upside people dont find valuation of 20 to be expensive and on downside even 10 is expensive if this is not what irrationality is than define irrationality for me. Nifty will test 3830 sooner than later. Bullish on edl, everonn alok text and mid cap reality and vijayabank
Monday, May 18, 2009
This is what i published some time back. I still buy India but at reasonable prudence. Almost a year when Index was 11k odd or 8k odd or even nw. What makes a difference is what quality you buy.
Look at those picks: Zylog, . JkLakshmi, Unity Vlotamp Indotech and many more I was skeptical cos there was unstabilitiy around but bullish on my picks. These are value buys decent business models higher than industry growth and beaten down valuations.
Happy investing bulls I upgrade my tgt of bottom arnd 3530 from 3230.
First time ever we Indians have not elected a MP with criminal background. My county men thanks to all of you.
Friday, May 15, 2009
Infosys PUt @1500 Best hedge
HI all buy Infosys Put 1500 ,. If anythig happens to market it can give you 200% return 30 rs cost wid a tgt of 82 before expiry.
Tuesday, May 12, 2009
Bullish on May-Hem effect
Hi readers,
The Mayhem 2006 replica in 2009. Index is at a place where the sledge is going to hurt most people. Easy money is what people have made in last few weeks now margin calls will get triggered. Talking to few of the eminent brokers they are worried about there position with the clients and when heat is going to take a toll on Index too. These people will forcably cut the positions as per exchange mandate.
Now where as an investor you stand probably no where. You bought at an intermediate peak an will definitely sell at intermediate low.
I would suggest the rally that was getting fatigued at 3700 level as of now it can test 3230-3245 level with the crucial support being 3470 on closing basis.
Markets will take a breather on thursday or friday last hour trading but please exit as election results is uncertain. People make more money by timing the stock exit and entry. Dont mind buying a stock at 5% premium if it does not have uncertaininty attached to it.
As of now I see bear grip getting tighter and uncertainity in short term will make volatility higher meaning lesser premium on Index thus it will also mean lesser value for INDEX.
The Mayhem 2006 replica in 2009. Index is at a place where the sledge is going to hurt most people. Easy money is what people have made in last few weeks now margin calls will get triggered. Talking to few of the eminent brokers they are worried about there position with the clients and when heat is going to take a toll on Index too. These people will forcably cut the positions as per exchange mandate.
Now where as an investor you stand probably no where. You bought at an intermediate peak an will definitely sell at intermediate low.
I would suggest the rally that was getting fatigued at 3700 level as of now it can test 3230-3245 level with the crucial support being 3470 on closing basis.
Markets will take a breather on thursday or friday last hour trading but please exit as election results is uncertain. People make more money by timing the stock exit and entry. Dont mind buying a stock at 5% premium if it does not have uncertaininty attached to it.
As of now I see bear grip getting tighter and uncertainity in short term will make volatility higher meaning lesser premium on Index thus it will also mean lesser value for INDEX.
Saturday, May 9, 2009
Are you feeling confident about the market?
Rising sun is saluted by everyone than why you want to salute the falling index. Is there steam left I seriously doubt seeing the market position and macro factors. FII are here to make money and they make it fast but when they exit why you have to catch the melting ICE. Thats exactky what you people are doing.
IS there any reason to buy at current levels. Lets see a bigger picture
a) Chrysler creating doubts thousands of ppl ll become jobless
b) India's political situation.
c) MAy hem effect 2006 index at the same level and same patterns outperforming MEtal pack. But is it really good situation out there. IS there enough demand to support the capacity expansion I doubt. So move money into real cash and book paper profits in Index. given current situation I doubt index does not deserve to trade beyond 3348 levels which is a decent PE. Growth cannot come People buy a wrong story and they build on it and when they exit we common investors are ready to catch the melting ICE. The best way is to keep your money out and wait for right investment opportunity. Its high time to exit from long positions crossovers will change in no time and bull or bear just see the right time can protect your portfolio.
IS there any reason to buy at current levels. Lets see a bigger picture
a) Chrysler creating doubts thousands of ppl ll become jobless
b) India's political situation.
c) MAy hem effect 2006 index at the same level and same patterns outperforming MEtal pack. But is it really good situation out there. IS there enough demand to support the capacity expansion I doubt. So move money into real cash and book paper profits in Index. given current situation I doubt index does not deserve to trade beyond 3348 levels which is a decent PE. Growth cannot come People buy a wrong story and they build on it and when they exit we common investors are ready to catch the melting ICE. The best way is to keep your money out and wait for right investment opportunity. Its high time to exit from long positions crossovers will change in no time and bull or bear just see the right time can protect your portfolio.
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