Friday, August 7, 2009

ADANI POWER IPO

Long time since an IPO had such block buster subscription. Now people are speculating about where it will list.
Remember Mahindra's New Kid on the block. Much beyond Valuation but truly a sentimental play. If I had to value ADANI i would suggest its underlying value at 70 its fair value at 120 its sentimental value at 145-160. Yes 160, this is what Adani Power will touch before anything wrong happens to it. I go Valuing an IPO on the basis of Value subscription its listing price as per HNI formula and QIB formula sets out between 125-130. SO within a week it will jump to that level even if market has some negative sentiments attached to it . Remeber the Group elder kid Mundra POrt a wonderful listing and a strong kid for a long time. Adani will b no different, Going forward track technicals of Mundraport and You will get a fair idea about how in the initial stage the group kid will react too. It will definitely touch 160 and after that EUPHORIA can take it to 200. But i guess I avoid EUPHORIA i would wait for it to touch 100 again.
Surely you are gettign 325+6% more atleast 340-343 shs for every 1 lac limit invested. More importantly you will make even at Rs 30. A profit of 10k. What else you can expect in 30 days. But wait patiently, QIB's have gone crazy so they will mop it up till 160.
About NHPC just invest at 36 and hold for a long time it will be a boring PSU with 60% listing gains. After that almost a year of consolidation remember NTPC, this being a unique story can even touch 65-70. But 100% in FIve years I think its better to skip the stock and buy at Bookvalue of close to 16-20 if it touches from there the stock would be a true multibagger may be traing interest could take the stock to Rs 100 also.