NHPC IPO is one long term story that looks similr to NTPC. Valuation on PE front seems expensvie to the naked eye but it is not true. But think about it from P/BV or even vision 2011 it seems something is left on the table.
a)I expect it would be around 44-45 for a long time before i takes a call on upside, on downside it wont be much from 36. P/BV post the listing would be around 1.45 times.
Valuations dont go by it Think about owning a HYdro POwer business 10000 MW by the end of 2011. It will be around 3 Rs per watt. So lot of potential at this point of time. With Maket being positive this will atleast trigger 39-42 in the first week of listing otself.
I put a subscribe on this IPO with a rating of 3. and long term rating of 4. Its fair price for issue is around 27- 33. This is because if I compare NTPC listing it gave 40% return to investors I expect the regulatory body will definitely adjsut to make sure you get 40% return on Investment on the amount allotted.
It seems the book will subscribe 5-6 times on retail front so you can get 15-16k worth of shares add the 20-25% gain. You can make appx 4500 -5000 on upper limit. The Kostak rate in different market is around 3k to 3.5k. SO i guess even punters has sensed the same.
Happy Investing.
PSU's at the time of listing has given decent returns and it will be no different to the promising star of tomorrow. D0nt go for valuation ploy lot many projects are undergoing, which has impacted Profit Loss on going basis as revenue will be streamlined in days to come
Monday, August 10, 2009
Friday, August 7, 2009
ADANI POWER IPO
Long time since an IPO had such block buster subscription. Now people are speculating about where it will list.
Remember Mahindra's New Kid on the block. Much beyond Valuation but truly a sentimental play. If I had to value ADANI i would suggest its underlying value at 70 its fair value at 120 its sentimental value at 145-160. Yes 160, this is what Adani Power will touch before anything wrong happens to it. I go Valuing an IPO on the basis of Value subscription its listing price as per HNI formula and QIB formula sets out between 125-130. SO within a week it will jump to that level even if market has some negative sentiments attached to it . Remeber the Group elder kid Mundra POrt a wonderful listing and a strong kid for a long time. Adani will b no different, Going forward track technicals of Mundraport and You will get a fair idea about how in the initial stage the group kid will react too. It will definitely touch 160 and after that EUPHORIA can take it to 200. But i guess I avoid EUPHORIA i would wait for it to touch 100 again.
Surely you are gettign 325+6% more atleast 340-343 shs for every 1 lac limit invested. More importantly you will make even at Rs 30. A profit of 10k. What else you can expect in 30 days. But wait patiently, QIB's have gone crazy so they will mop it up till 160.
About NHPC just invest at 36 and hold for a long time it will be a boring PSU with 60% listing gains. After that almost a year of consolidation remember NTPC, this being a unique story can even touch 65-70. But 100% in FIve years I think its better to skip the stock and buy at Bookvalue of close to 16-20 if it touches from there the stock would be a true multibagger may be traing interest could take the stock to Rs 100 also.
Remember Mahindra's New Kid on the block. Much beyond Valuation but truly a sentimental play. If I had to value ADANI i would suggest its underlying value at 70 its fair value at 120 its sentimental value at 145-160. Yes 160, this is what Adani Power will touch before anything wrong happens to it. I go Valuing an IPO on the basis of Value subscription its listing price as per HNI formula and QIB formula sets out between 125-130. SO within a week it will jump to that level even if market has some negative sentiments attached to it . Remeber the Group elder kid Mundra POrt a wonderful listing and a strong kid for a long time. Adani will b no different, Going forward track technicals of Mundraport and You will get a fair idea about how in the initial stage the group kid will react too. It will definitely touch 160 and after that EUPHORIA can take it to 200. But i guess I avoid EUPHORIA i would wait for it to touch 100 again.
Surely you are gettign 325+6% more atleast 340-343 shs for every 1 lac limit invested. More importantly you will make even at Rs 30. A profit of 10k. What else you can expect in 30 days. But wait patiently, QIB's have gone crazy so they will mop it up till 160.
About NHPC just invest at 36 and hold for a long time it will be a boring PSU with 60% listing gains. After that almost a year of consolidation remember NTPC, this being a unique story can even touch 65-70. But 100% in FIve years I think its better to skip the stock and buy at Bookvalue of close to 16-20 if it touches from there the stock would be a true multibagger may be traing interest could take the stock to Rs 100 also.
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