Midcaps are Blazing like fire when Large boyz are consolidating

Its another round of irrational exuberance or are we trying to break the ice with the help of midcap. No way I see data has bottomed out. The only issue is Speculative players has given an igntion to market. DO not chase handsome returns with am 3-4 day view also because one will definitely be stuck and the circuit story will not allow you to exit. It looks good that one makes profit on papers but can you actually expect this to continue. Three rallies and a downturn. We need to cross 3466 and beat the 200 DMA which is not a certainity. From all angles its a sure short play for shorting index because on upside you will have a tight stop loss and also strong resistance. History suggest that bulls try to exit before 200 DMA expecting other players to beak the ice and thus they have to attmpt twice or thrice . This is first significant attempt thus it will fail in all circumstance on downside I don see any reason to fall below 2720 either. Right now best way to stay in market is increase your SL for your invstment holdings and book profits on every rise.
One stock that will hog limelight is SIntex Industry its up on charts needs one strong move and can give 20% return from here on. Hold on Mid Cap IT, The satyam saga can extend to beaten down valuation of these players. Keep a strong watch on INFY mgmt guidance be4 trading into market. But I Don see next year guidance beyond 109 thus the stock is available at 14 times forward a PEG of 1 will mean the stock should at one point of time will see atleast 1282 on downside. Who knows if the result is better than poor expectaton the stock can rally to 1578 also in two or three days but tha flow should always be used as an exit. Even in uncertain times we have lot many small medium and large cap avilable at less than .5 book and PE of 6 max which is reasonable in financial prudence to survive the thunder of slowdown.

Is the bear dead????

Market showing irrational movements is a clear indicator that we are in the grip of a bear phase though sentiments have improved across the globe but this run up is not sustainable. One major reason is th rally is not concentric, its broadbased name a sector which is not up by atleast 25% mid cap line up( i mean). For a good base to form or even a bull run to take place leaders should be identified but this run is a mixed bag Realty, Banks,CAP goods IT Oil gas all up in disproportiontae form. SO this is first indicator that we will slide again. Use the last phase of short term rally to exit. Penny stocks have also started hitting cirucits.
The next trigger is Elections. Data really reflect that there has to be a rally post election if stable govt forms which is a big question in itself. In India for years I see mili juli sarkar.
This is a macro sense of equity linkages. Now lets see what my analyst friends have to say.
Without offence these were people who told @8000 we are in deep trouble. Nothing happened to Index on downside but on upside after a decent rally these players talk about bottoming of Indian economy IIP numbers etc etc... I seriously doubt there conviction and understanding on our market. I am not an investor with decades of experience but last 5 years have taught me a simple game that large players play. This rally needs a decent 1000 plus point correction on Sensex if at all it has to improve my belief that we have bottomed out. We need to see large cap going up and mid caps to stuck and only selected sectors to make a move thus giving us a sector as market leader.
I dont see India going ahead to post the phenomenal 7-8% growth with the widening of deficits. If manifestos will provide free things to poor and higher tax scale to middle class. From were the Government will get money from to fund for Infrastructure. They will burden us with debt. How can we grow. Politicians are promising something for their vote banks I pray this time let it be words of promise what they are famous for because if they implement this time market can test 8000 also. Yesterday IIP nos are significantly lower and if this continues for couple of quarters also we are in midst of contraction and we will stagnate somewhere between 3.8-4.67% in next two to three quarters.
Newsmakers can cheer for Inflation at 0.26% but for me is Inflation really down except for energy pack we are not actually down. Two yrs back the Cooking Oil was 78 rs a litre last yr it was 115 this yr its 102. Calcualte the two yr effect, Sugar from 18 to 27 and god knows if ts gonna be 30-32 in shrt term. Flour 10 kg bag from 192 to 210+ ( in Subhiksha Stores Aashirwad atta) in one year where have we gone down. Pulses dal are in the range of 50-70. Potato from 9 to 11.5 and so on. The list is not ending and i dont see any reason for us to cheer. Newsmakers have got same things to interpret in different ways.Business channels whethers its 18 or profit they create hype over simple issues. Beware investor frieds about mid cap F N O stocks you may hit fortune overnigt and also turn beggar the next morning. Ispat 17.5 call was at 1.5 it CMP was at 14 rs. and 15 put available at 2.5 day be4 yesterday. Write 17.5 call write 15 put and go long on 12.5 put go long on share. A strategy that many players would be using to make money as it seems quite interestingly poised on risk reward side. This is a BOX formed pay off is profitable above 13.2 till the range of 18.5. Its irratonal again "happy investing" but beware market does not allow so easy profit and large range scalability as visible you can burn your hands stick out your neck from this position if you are not high risk player as I did.

Zylog Systems

This stock seems to be at a level which is lucrative xciting and definitely a multibagger. The EPS of the company stands to be close to 50 plus the stock is at a level of 100. The company when got listed was identified as one of the great company to invest and made high of 400 plus. Now with stock market retreating itself I guess the stock is shadowed in BFSi sector but good part about the company is it is giving sustinable growth all the ratios are close to its peers and business model is sustainable in tough times too. With expansion going through smoothly and lttle debt in the company the stock can touch 135 and above provided it holds 94.8 on clsoing basis. Yesterday it make an attempt to give a break out .Today i Guess it ll cross yesterday high and than fresh buying interest will come in. Technically the stok made a low of 61 from where it has gone up by over 67% if i believe technical the stock will give 128% rturn from its lows on a smooth run that iss close to weekly signal on charts too. So tgt of 135 looks achievable provided the accumulation was done by some good investors. Otherwise too look at polaris mphasis and other stocks I guess the valuation play will give atleast 100% plus in 2-3 qrtrs.
Nifty has seen fresh put being built at 3300 levels that is also a resistance level around 3380-3402. Do not get overwhelmed today could be used as a day to exit market is doing more than fundamentals. Though stock are there which can be looked with great respect and buy. i still reteriate a buy on JK lakshmi and unity though it has been up 20% in last two days. Buy such stocks but don get excited if it gives you great returns in short term exit becasue you people do not invest with a sense of owning a business else stay invested in all three.

Aashish

Stock market:Invest as if you want to own the business

The art of Investing is buy low and sell high People who made money are the ones who bought stocks in tough time and made exit when peple were too comfortable with equiy market. Investment opportunities are available in plenty. At this point of time I thought of being an entreprenuer but no i feel I will buy small chunks of the stocks that will be making money for me & buy the servuce of experience management too is free. In this respect i would share two ideas time frame is unknown but it would definitely be a multi multi bagger in bull run. No. 1 unity infraprojects This stk is available wid lot of comfort in terms of Book value and order book. The most reasoable thing about this stk is its valuation less than 2 times its net profit and if I expect that they will not grow by 5% also still the valuation is at mouth watering levels.For full year the stock EPS will be 37 odd next yr it is somewhere in the range of 38.85+ its existing assets worth over 103 plus this means on NAV basis the stk two yrs down the line will be at 176 rs cash level add more the assets and decent order book unexecuted part. The stock will be a doubler atleast from here in less than two years and if bulls go crazy it may command a minimum PE of 6-10 times meaning 3-4 times return from current level. Another stock that interests is J K Lakshmi Cement available at 1.6 PE where its peers are anywhere between 7-8 times decent growth and dividend yield expected due to expansion. PE of the stock less than two thus the stk can be in three figures in six months time currently at 53 . I know difficulty is to time market but the best way is to invest and remain invested. I own definitely an Infra COmpany and a cemet industry common stock as an entreprenuer I am making money in the first year of my investment and my ROE is somewhere in between 30% what else should i ask for. Thank you investors for patient reading but these stocks will hog limelight as these are gems of mine with lot of due diligence and understanding I am recommending you all. Own these business today for reasonable return from Business perspective. Invest for your future today and dont get jittery if it falls in the short term and dont get excited if it gives decent returns. You will mint money in three yrs to 4 yrs atleast twice of what you make in NSC bank Fd or any other instrument ( COnsidered safe).

We need to grow up before we say India is growing

Blame it on ourselves or our representatives who are sitting in Lok Sabha that India stands in a position where it will grow at a rate of 3-4%. Hindu Growth rate is what we were able to benchmark almost 15 yrs before but we dont want to go to that slow level again.
If so educated ones please Vote and choose people who do not promise you a Rice at Rs 2 per kg. Its same for all parties No manifesto talks abt reducing corruption makin it convinient for people to have access to Domestic gas but they in turn give you Television as u r poor. I thank god that Tata Nano 1 lac dream is a failure( assuming base model is useless). U politicians seriously s**k no offense to any party but the main objective is India should shine seeing the manifestos I feel Election Commission should allow purchase of vote atleast that will churn the black money of politicians to common man. We tax payers will not have to suffer the burden of Rs 2 kg a rice or Television. Next election manfesto will have Nano or atleast a honda bike and access to hotels free for our poor brothers but rather than creating oppportnities for this poor brothers of ours these politicians will kill the taxpayers and everyone doubts whether these will will ever actually go to the hands of poor. The definition of poor in party context is the ones who distributed manifestos who were part of rally. So hardly 500 TV and 500 tons of rice but centre will definitely be billed at 10% of total production. HAAHAA its shame on us but the onus is also on us choose the right party with right agenda I did not find any so please hlp me whom to vote for.
I apologize for some harsh statements this is not to hurt anyones belief or sentiments but this is a fact that all this will lead to another scam and the situation we are in I doubt we can take another scar on our face in shrt term Jai Hind

Enlarge your vision and go beyond sensex will touch all the said levels in 2 yr 14500, 16700 and 18000

Blame it on elections: I guess we are overdone in terms of downside the election funds are being pumped like this i don kw but somehow if we see historical P/E and dividend yields its better than 2% for sensex stocks :: FIIs are getting good returns in terms of USD to India than why are we in trouble
oil has shown sign of weakness believe it or not free fall till $122 seems likely, is a great possibility in that scenario we ll definitely cheer , we have overdone in terms of estimating wrong nos the PE for large caps are 10-12
the problem is inflation specially for next qrtr or so.
I see threethings ore to correct from here on that ll impact steel to correct it ll lead to correction in specultion more people would have negative bias attached in mth or so for metals thus a part of WPI is taken care off
Nw see the next part OIl ll definitely correct petroleum inistry ll react first if oil corrects thus cost of living ll reduce
RBI actions of CRR hike ll create dent for sectors bt wht abt if everything is checked in terms of speculation I guesss the rally is here to come
Moreover earnings downgrade thn y one expects HDFC to post 47% on large base i guess analysts hype downside and upside a 205 expectaton would have rallied the stk to 2000 or more so if model of a company is doing what oughts to be done than who is making mistake number crunchers or analysts. THe no. seem to be decent its just things are overhyped 16% y-o-y growth for 38 of 50 stocks of nifty a 20% plus for remaining i don see reason for downside ..... Why u expect so much when we r in trouble comeon 47% increase in NII from a bank when CRR and others rates are taking tall on bank profits.....
Analysts go wrong and create blunder US stks rallied today cos they had too tooo much negative factored in . US inventory data ll change again around $122. What can we do . Rely on siple dynamics i don see Indian economy growth below 7.25%... The stocks are at mouth watering levels its just we need liquidity that is been sucked by players who knw hw to create a mirage of everything
Please remeber a PEG ratio of less than 0.4 means buy . You would not find stks at 7-8% yield with quality management Long term medium term investors please strt picking.. i guess nw u must have learnt FII formula and making money on shrt sell bt ny for more days they ll return they have to return we r at mouthwatering levels adjust 8k wid groth and u find we r there again 4-5% correction i m nt best in the business nor have FII frnds asking thm nt to sell they r selling cherry to polish there poor performance back home guyz u trust Indian stk market the rt time or else 18mths ypu ppl will regret stating tht we never thought its going to give handsome returns

MarketOutlook

Hi all,
The crude touched the high of 147.95 and closed arnd 138 it means the two tops taken off ... yes the crude has formed double top a significant correction can be expected from here on. Whats worse is we have reacted heavily on downside for any sector. Reality available at 65p to NAV . Banks available at 2 times book and 1 times private and public respectively. Stocks will tend to outperform once clarity comes in terms of US economy . However we are nearing the bottom and thats per sure a sluggish consolidtation phase is over ...Now we ll make a move +- 2% from next week. no major downside risk. come on investors u were buying at 15k nw its 12.6k whats stopping u. ood news are just started start invest more often. Picks are old favorites
Zylog, Mundra, EDL, SUpremeinf,BHel,LT,HDFCBANK,LMW,KOLTEPATIL and ELectrotherm
the list continues to grow

Happy investing