Infosys PUt @1500 Best hedge

HI all buy Infosys Put 1500 ,. If anythig happens to market it can give you 200% return 30 rs cost wid a tgt of 82 before expiry.

Bullish on May-Hem effect

Hi readers,
The Mayhem 2006 replica in 2009. Index is at a place where the sledge is going to hurt most people. Easy money is what people have made in last few weeks now margin calls will get triggered. Talking to few of the eminent brokers they are worried about there position with the clients and when heat is going to take a toll on Index too. These people will forcably cut the positions as per exchange mandate.
Now where as an investor you stand probably no where. You bought at an intermediate peak an will definitely sell at intermediate low.
I would suggest the rally that was getting fatigued at 3700 level as of now it can test 3230-3245 level with the crucial support being 3470 on closing basis.
Markets will take a breather on thursday or friday last hour trading but please exit as election results is uncertain. People make more money by timing the stock exit and entry. Dont mind buying a stock at 5% premium if it does not have uncertaininty attached to it.
As of now I see bear grip getting tighter and uncertainity in short term will make volatility higher meaning lesser premium on Index thus it will also mean lesser value for INDEX.

Are you feeling confident about the market?

Rising sun is saluted by everyone than why you want to salute the falling index. Is there steam left I seriously doubt seeing the market position and macro factors. FII are here to make money and they make it fast but when they exit why you have to catch the melting ICE. Thats exactky what you people are doing.
IS there any reason to buy at current levels. Lets see a bigger picture
a) Chrysler creating doubts thousands of ppl ll become jobless
b) India's political situation.
c) MAy hem effect 2006 index at the same level and same patterns outperforming MEtal pack. But is it really good situation out there. IS there enough demand to support the capacity expansion I doubt. So move money into real cash and book paper profits in Index. given current situation I doubt index does not deserve to trade beyond 3348 levels which is a decent PE. Growth cannot come People buy a wrong story and they build on it and when they exit we common investors are ready to catch the melting ICE. The best way is to keep your money out and wait for right investment opportunity. Its high time to exit from long positions crossovers will change in no time and bull or bear just see the right time can protect your portfolio.

Market OUtlook

Hi ,
The Mayhem effect of 2006 reminds me about the fact market can change its 200 or 100 or 50 DMA crossover in 3-4 trading sessions. Keeping that as a fear in mind we all know what momentum can do to market. The last leg of momemtum before election can take NIFTY to 3635-3720 level and even 3830 levels. We need two things Reliance to consolidate above 1825 levels. Else market cannot test these levels. Banking to support the upsurge.
Now take a closer look at laggards and movers.
Prefer Cement Stocks: its investor heaven but not any more till august: Rainy season impact
Automobiles: Low base effect played an important role but going forward I seriously doubt the fact that automobiles is a space to stay invested.
Reliance: GRM's will be under pressurebut momentum can do anything. Banking except the great HDFC and AXIS i doubt other banks has credentials to take an upward surge from here on. ICICI can do a little on upmove.
Others LT and Bhel: Will come in to support falling market but it would be difficult when momentum reverses.
The three crucial levels of break down are 3539-3547. than 3603 and 3672 and 3841.
As defensive move keep shorting Index at these levels with tight sl above 10 pts from the recommended levels. I dont see market to fall below 2960 but at the same time elections, govt and other clouds cannot allow momentum to get bigger and bigger and if it goes big sell sell sell. Everyone has stocks in the portfolio. Rather than exiting use nifty strategies at recommended levels to hedge position and use right breakdown signals to exit all the stock position. If marlet after touching 3547 closes below 3422, breakdown will start with a tgt of 3230 and than lets market decide further breakdown or not. Market is in a place where it can easily shed 40% of its gain i.e 400 nfty pts on a slight negative news. This is a right time to catch on unrealized profits with SL to confirm you exit with a profitable position. For eg. If JK lakshmi cement closes below 56 than the stock momentum is dead for a while but on contrary keep a hold wid a tgt of 72 test way back to 64 and than 83 in days to come. Similar for Zylog do not exit the position if you ar holding on to it. Wid a SL of 121 remain long the stock will test 157 and 183 sooner than later.
This is an Outlook on market for next week. Strenght is not visible to me but going against momentum at current levels would be suicidal. Sell at right time make small entry and exit with tight sl one can make more profit. Last resistance is wht one shld look to cover the position on shrt as it acts as a support for this time

alok industries

I do not deny the fact that it cannot touch 1 or 10 rs. But I cant stop people from selling Gold at throw away price. The Debt and Equity of the firm is a consideration. But investment positives over shadows few concerns. Like

Concern 1: D/E makes it finanically over leverage agreed. Think from restructuring prospects for the firm it has raised huge amt through Right Issue.

Concern 2: I am not a fool, after considering the EPS post dilution its still available at a PE of 4.5-5.

COncern 3: Profit: If its not a Satyam it definitely has posted true results in that case. The Cash in balance sheet is at 9% of debt through NEt profits add 440 crores added throughdilution and rights. The company can reduce its debt to almost 50%.

Concern $: Its all in the mind. A company that has posted a growth of over 20% in last 5 years is available at PE of less than 4 come-on I assure you you people will find this stock attractive at 45 when my analyst frieds after decent accumulation will come and talk about it.

Now the fact, It has huge stake in Grabla ALok an established player in Infra space too . If i am not wrong their subsidiary bought 950 crores of property to yield 14% return through rent,Assuming that they lost 35% of value on investment still is worth over 700 crores. Market Cap at less than 1000 crores a d/e on higher side but still they have been giving good expansion growth. One simple equation if stocks like Nocil can be market flavor this definitelly qualifies for a buy.

Chart Patterns showing sign of revival and tgt is 18.55, 23.1 looks reasonable time frame 1 mnth. Forgot to mention if you hold this stock for 3- yrs it ight even hit a half century. Its IPL season thats why nos are Century Half century. This is not an investment idea its a rationale. Calculate your return from NSC and make the mistake of buying it at 45. ELse spread your investment between 13-16. This is a long term horse nd is likely that it will stay and give returns despote poor leverage and high risk attached to it Nothing worse is visible. Te stock is at 10% from its peak.

ALOK INDS

Alok Inds can test 18 85 with volumes building in around 16.15 a tight SL of 15.40 the stock can be bought wid a tgt of 18 85 and 19.70 in days to come.
The stock is a great value buy wid EPS of over 6 and F n O stock can be another hunting ground of speculators 20-22%% in a days time or so
SCRIP code 521070

Nifty trading Strategy

Right time to go long on PUT 3300 for NIFTY and hold it will definitely touch 80 in days to come currently at 53