alok industries

I do not deny the fact that it cannot touch 1 or 10 rs. But I cant stop people from selling Gold at throw away price. The Debt and Equity of the firm is a consideration. But investment positives over shadows few concerns. Like

Concern 1: D/E makes it finanically over leverage agreed. Think from restructuring prospects for the firm it has raised huge amt through Right Issue.

Concern 2: I am not a fool, after considering the EPS post dilution its still available at a PE of 4.5-5.

COncern 3: Profit: If its not a Satyam it definitely has posted true results in that case. The Cash in balance sheet is at 9% of debt through NEt profits add 440 crores added throughdilution and rights. The company can reduce its debt to almost 50%.

Concern $: Its all in the mind. A company that has posted a growth of over 20% in last 5 years is available at PE of less than 4 come-on I assure you you people will find this stock attractive at 45 when my analyst frieds after decent accumulation will come and talk about it.

Now the fact, It has huge stake in Grabla ALok an established player in Infra space too . If i am not wrong their subsidiary bought 950 crores of property to yield 14% return through rent,Assuming that they lost 35% of value on investment still is worth over 700 crores. Market Cap at less than 1000 crores a d/e on higher side but still they have been giving good expansion growth. One simple equation if stocks like Nocil can be market flavor this definitelly qualifies for a buy.

Chart Patterns showing sign of revival and tgt is 18.55, 23.1 looks reasonable time frame 1 mnth. Forgot to mention if you hold this stock for 3- yrs it ight even hit a half century. Its IPL season thats why nos are Century Half century. This is not an investment idea its a rationale. Calculate your return from NSC and make the mistake of buying it at 45. ELse spread your investment between 13-16. This is a long term horse nd is likely that it will stay and give returns despote poor leverage and high risk attached to it Nothing worse is visible. Te stock is at 10% from its peak.

ALOK INDS

Alok Inds can test 18 85 with volumes building in around 16.15 a tight SL of 15.40 the stock can be bought wid a tgt of 18 85 and 19.70 in days to come.
The stock is a great value buy wid EPS of over 6 and F n O stock can be another hunting ground of speculators 20-22%% in a days time or so
SCRIP code 521070

Nifty trading Strategy

Right time to go long on PUT 3300 for NIFTY and hold it will definitely touch 80 in days to come currently at 53

Midcaps are Blazing like fire when Large boyz are consolidating

Its another round of irrational exuberance or are we trying to break the ice with the help of midcap. No way I see data has bottomed out. The only issue is Speculative players has given an igntion to market. DO not chase handsome returns with am 3-4 day view also because one will definitely be stuck and the circuit story will not allow you to exit. It looks good that one makes profit on papers but can you actually expect this to continue. Three rallies and a downturn. We need to cross 3466 and beat the 200 DMA which is not a certainity. From all angles its a sure short play for shorting index because on upside you will have a tight stop loss and also strong resistance. History suggest that bulls try to exit before 200 DMA expecting other players to beak the ice and thus they have to attmpt twice or thrice . This is first significant attempt thus it will fail in all circumstance on downside I don see any reason to fall below 2720 either. Right now best way to stay in market is increase your SL for your invstment holdings and book profits on every rise.
One stock that will hog limelight is SIntex Industry its up on charts needs one strong move and can give 20% return from here on. Hold on Mid Cap IT, The satyam saga can extend to beaten down valuation of these players. Keep a strong watch on INFY mgmt guidance be4 trading into market. But I Don see next year guidance beyond 109 thus the stock is available at 14 times forward a PEG of 1 will mean the stock should at one point of time will see atleast 1282 on downside. Who knows if the result is better than poor expectaton the stock can rally to 1578 also in two or three days but tha flow should always be used as an exit. Even in uncertain times we have lot many small medium and large cap avilable at less than .5 book and PE of 6 max which is reasonable in financial prudence to survive the thunder of slowdown.

Is the bear dead????

Market showing irrational movements is a clear indicator that we are in the grip of a bear phase though sentiments have improved across the globe but this run up is not sustainable. One major reason is th rally is not concentric, its broadbased name a sector which is not up by atleast 25% mid cap line up( i mean). For a good base to form or even a bull run to take place leaders should be identified but this run is a mixed bag Realty, Banks,CAP goods IT Oil gas all up in disproportiontae form. SO this is first indicator that we will slide again. Use the last phase of short term rally to exit. Penny stocks have also started hitting cirucits.
The next trigger is Elections. Data really reflect that there has to be a rally post election if stable govt forms which is a big question in itself. In India for years I see mili juli sarkar.
This is a macro sense of equity linkages. Now lets see what my analyst friends have to say.
Without offence these were people who told @8000 we are in deep trouble. Nothing happened to Index on downside but on upside after a decent rally these players talk about bottoming of Indian economy IIP numbers etc etc... I seriously doubt there conviction and understanding on our market. I am not an investor with decades of experience but last 5 years have taught me a simple game that large players play. This rally needs a decent 1000 plus point correction on Sensex if at all it has to improve my belief that we have bottomed out. We need to see large cap going up and mid caps to stuck and only selected sectors to make a move thus giving us a sector as market leader.
I dont see India going ahead to post the phenomenal 7-8% growth with the widening of deficits. If manifestos will provide free things to poor and higher tax scale to middle class. From were the Government will get money from to fund for Infrastructure. They will burden us with debt. How can we grow. Politicians are promising something for their vote banks I pray this time let it be words of promise what they are famous for because if they implement this time market can test 8000 also. Yesterday IIP nos are significantly lower and if this continues for couple of quarters also we are in midst of contraction and we will stagnate somewhere between 3.8-4.67% in next two to three quarters.
Newsmakers can cheer for Inflation at 0.26% but for me is Inflation really down except for energy pack we are not actually down. Two yrs back the Cooking Oil was 78 rs a litre last yr it was 115 this yr its 102. Calcualte the two yr effect, Sugar from 18 to 27 and god knows if ts gonna be 30-32 in shrt term. Flour 10 kg bag from 192 to 210+ ( in Subhiksha Stores Aashirwad atta) in one year where have we gone down. Pulses dal are in the range of 50-70. Potato from 9 to 11.5 and so on. The list is not ending and i dont see any reason for us to cheer. Newsmakers have got same things to interpret in different ways.Business channels whethers its 18 or profit they create hype over simple issues. Beware investor frieds about mid cap F N O stocks you may hit fortune overnigt and also turn beggar the next morning. Ispat 17.5 call was at 1.5 it CMP was at 14 rs. and 15 put available at 2.5 day be4 yesterday. Write 17.5 call write 15 put and go long on 12.5 put go long on share. A strategy that many players would be using to make money as it seems quite interestingly poised on risk reward side. This is a BOX formed pay off is profitable above 13.2 till the range of 18.5. Its irratonal again "happy investing" but beware market does not allow so easy profit and large range scalability as visible you can burn your hands stick out your neck from this position if you are not high risk player as I did.

Zylog Systems

This stock seems to be at a level which is lucrative xciting and definitely a multibagger. The EPS of the company stands to be close to 50 plus the stock is at a level of 100. The company when got listed was identified as one of the great company to invest and made high of 400 plus. Now with stock market retreating itself I guess the stock is shadowed in BFSi sector but good part about the company is it is giving sustinable growth all the ratios are close to its peers and business model is sustainable in tough times too. With expansion going through smoothly and lttle debt in the company the stock can touch 135 and above provided it holds 94.8 on clsoing basis. Yesterday it make an attempt to give a break out .Today i Guess it ll cross yesterday high and than fresh buying interest will come in. Technically the stok made a low of 61 from where it has gone up by over 67% if i believe technical the stock will give 128% rturn from its lows on a smooth run that iss close to weekly signal on charts too. So tgt of 135 looks achievable provided the accumulation was done by some good investors. Otherwise too look at polaris mphasis and other stocks I guess the valuation play will give atleast 100% plus in 2-3 qrtrs.
Nifty has seen fresh put being built at 3300 levels that is also a resistance level around 3380-3402. Do not get overwhelmed today could be used as a day to exit market is doing more than fundamentals. Though stock are there which can be looked with great respect and buy. i still reteriate a buy on JK lakshmi and unity though it has been up 20% in last two days. Buy such stocks but don get excited if it gives you great returns in short term exit becasue you people do not invest with a sense of owning a business else stay invested in all three.

Aashish

Stock market:Invest as if you want to own the business

The art of Investing is buy low and sell high People who made money are the ones who bought stocks in tough time and made exit when peple were too comfortable with equiy market. Investment opportunities are available in plenty. At this point of time I thought of being an entreprenuer but no i feel I will buy small chunks of the stocks that will be making money for me & buy the servuce of experience management too is free. In this respect i would share two ideas time frame is unknown but it would definitely be a multi multi bagger in bull run. No. 1 unity infraprojects This stk is available wid lot of comfort in terms of Book value and order book. The most reasoable thing about this stk is its valuation less than 2 times its net profit and if I expect that they will not grow by 5% also still the valuation is at mouth watering levels.For full year the stock EPS will be 37 odd next yr it is somewhere in the range of 38.85+ its existing assets worth over 103 plus this means on NAV basis the stk two yrs down the line will be at 176 rs cash level add more the assets and decent order book unexecuted part. The stock will be a doubler atleast from here in less than two years and if bulls go crazy it may command a minimum PE of 6-10 times meaning 3-4 times return from current level. Another stock that interests is J K Lakshmi Cement available at 1.6 PE where its peers are anywhere between 7-8 times decent growth and dividend yield expected due to expansion. PE of the stock less than two thus the stk can be in three figures in six months time currently at 53 . I know difficulty is to time market but the best way is to invest and remain invested. I own definitely an Infra COmpany and a cemet industry common stock as an entreprenuer I am making money in the first year of my investment and my ROE is somewhere in between 30% what else should i ask for. Thank you investors for patient reading but these stocks will hog limelight as these are gems of mine with lot of due diligence and understanding I am recommending you all. Own these business today for reasonable return from Business perspective. Invest for your future today and dont get jittery if it falls in the short term and dont get excited if it gives decent returns. You will mint money in three yrs to 4 yrs atleast twice of what you make in NSC bank Fd or any other instrument ( COnsidered safe).